A long first week in November

After the long holidays, tomorrow is the resumption of the latest episode of Philippine political drama. There are expectations that it will be an interesting week.

British Prime Minister Wilson once said, “In politics, a week is a long time.”

Yesterday, at the meeting of Teachers Solidarity, someone asked: “How do we pursue our campaign for the Magna Carta, should there be major political changes next week?” That started a flurry of discussion about the open rift between House Speaker De Venecia and President Arroyo. Will her allies in Congress move to unseat him? Will he mobilize his allies to support the opposition move to impeach her?

Steven Pinker wrote that when supposed enemies fight, that is not news. News is when supposed friends fight.

When leaders of the dominant elite openly express hostility, it catches public attention. Other news items may be more significant, like the rising oil prices and their impact on our economy and our lives; but elite internecine politics hogs the headlines.

There is another reason for the intense interest in this latest episode of our political telenovela, especially among those who hope for political changes sooner than the 2010 presidential elections. Perhaps the conflict within the ruling coalition will create openings for new opposition initiatives?

Since the recent series of scandals – the anomalous deal on the National Broadband Network, the distribution of cash “gifts” to governors and members of congress – there have been fresh rumors about restlessness among the military. The explosion in the Glorietta was immediately suspected as a way to draw public attention away from the scandals; some even speculated that it would be followed by other “incidents” that would justify emergency rule.

Though not as widespread as in 2006, there have been fresh calls for GMA to resign, and new proposals for a transition or caretaker government. For a while, the GMA presidency again appeared vulnerable.

Her critics grudgingly acknowledge that her grant of pardon to deposed president Erap bought her breathing space. Count one key figure out as an immediate threat to her.

Hence the interest in the moves of De Venecia, and presumably former president FVR, calling for “moral reform” and a timetable of 100 days. And the counter moves of GMA allies threatening to choose a new House Speaker.

Yesterday we had a brief debate about these developments. I am inclined to believe that neither side will risk a final break; they will calibrate their conflict to exert maximum leverage, but aim to end with some compromise agreement. Others think otherwise. Even the most cunning politicians, they say, can miscalculate.

We will know sooner or later. Abangan ang susunod na kabanata.

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